Greece are unbeaten after three rounds and top the group on seven points. Ivan Jovanović's team came from behind to win 2-1 in Serbia, edged Germany 1-0 through Dimitrios Kourbelis in the 74th minute and then led the Netherlands 2-0 at half-time in Thessaloniki before conceding twice in a 2-2 draw. Against the bigger sides Greece have been happy without the ball: 24 percent possession in Augsburg and 29 percent against the Dutch, with goalkeeper Konstantinos Tzolakis and Konstantinos Mavropanos central to a deep, compact defence. Christos Tzolis is out with a muscle injury picked up against the Netherlands, while Giannis Konstantelias (cruciate ligament) is also missing.
Germany sit third on four points after a 1-1 draw in Amsterdam, the home defeat to Greece and a convincing 2-0 win over Serbia in Munich, where Tom Bischof and Florian Wirtz scored. Klopp has split his pool into two squads, so Joshua Kimmich is left out by choice, while Jamal Musiala, Kai Havertz and Serge Gnabry are not available and Nico Schlotterbeck has an ankle ligament injury. According to German media, further changes are expected, with several players in line for debuts. Wirtz is expected to wear the armband.
Germany lead the head-to-head record with seven wins, three draws and one defeat in eleven meetings, but that single defeat, Greece's first ever win in the fixture, came just a week ago. The pattern in that game is key for our market: Germany had 76 percent of the ball and 15 shots against a Greek side that defended in numbers. Corner counts in the group have been 8, 13, 8, 13 and 14 in the five matches involving these two teams, so three of five have gone over 8.5. Germany won 12 corners against Serbia, while Greece have taken six in two of their three games and conceded eight at home to the Netherlands.
The main risk is a repeat of Augsburg, where Germany's dominance produced only five corners and the match finished with eight in total. A heavily rotated German side with new combinations may struggle for width, and Greece will gladly slow the game down. We still prefer corners to the result markets: Greece's form makes backing Germany to win uncomfortable, the goals markets depend on finishing, while the corner market rewards the expected match picture of German pressure against a deep block. An early Greek goal would likely increase that pressure further.
Over 8.5 corners is priced at 1.85 with Betfair, which implies roughly 54 percent. Based on the group matches and the expected game state, we put the chance a little higher, around 57-58 percent, so we see a small edge rather than a big one. Over 9.5 corners is available at around 2.55 for those who want a higher price with more risk, but we prefer the lower line. That is why we are backing over 8.5 corners in Thessaloniki.
Betting tip: Over 8.5 corners @ 1.85 (Betfair)
Odds were taken from OddsCapo on Saturday and may have changed. Always check the price with the bookmaker before you bet.
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