Matt LaFleur's Packers are 1-1, but neither game went smoothly. In Week 1 they led 22-17 in Minnesota going into the fourth quarter, then gave up 29 straight points and lost 39-22. Last Sunday they needed overtime to beat the New York Jets 20-17 and gained only 199 total yards. Jordan Love is completing 52.1 percent of his passes. Running back Josh Jacobs is on the Commissioner's Exempt List, Micah Parsons is on the PUP list, and Green Bay ranks last in the league in rushing yards. The final injury report also rules out wide receiver Jayden Reed (neck) and two offensive linemen, Aaron Banks and Zach Bako-Bewele. Christian Watson has been the main big-play threat.
Atlanta's attack has been weaker still. In Kevin Stefanski's first season as head coach, the Falcons lost 20-13 at home to Pittsburgh and 34-3 to Carolina, so they have scored just 16 points in two games. Tua Tagovailoa was named the Week 1 starter but hurt his oblique in practice. Cooper Rush filled in, threw four interceptions over the two games and, according to NFL.com, never got the offence into the red zone. Penix is an upgrade. Before his injury last season he threw only three interceptions, but Atlanta averaged 20.6 points in his starts and 16 in his road starts. Bijan Robinson is the focal point, while the defence is without cornerback A.J. Terrell (IR) and edge rusher Samson Ebukam.
Green Bay leads the regular-season series 17-15. The most recent meeting, in September 2023, ended 25-24 to Atlanta, and the Falcons have not won at Lambeau since 2008. Those results come from a different era for both clubs, so we give them little weight. The current numbers matter more. According to Covers, both defences rank in the top nine in yards per play allowed and second and third in yards per carry allowed, while the two offences sit 29th and 32nd on third down. Green Bay's pass rush, led by Lukas Van Ness with 2.5 sacks, should put pressure on a quarterback playing his first game in ten months.
The main risk is turnovers. Green Bay's 61-point game in Minnesota came from late giveaways, and Carolina scored off Atlanta mistakes, including an interception returned for a touchdown. A defensive or special-teams score can push a low total over quickly, and Penix could lift the Falcons more than expected. That's why we prefer the total to the spread. We can see Green Bay winning by a touchdown, but an offence this short on weapons has struggled to pull away, and the Packers have failed to cover in each of their last seven games.
The market agrees with the direction of this pick. The total opened at 46.5 and is now 43.5–44.5 at most bookmakers. At 44.5, Under is priced at 1.91, while Over ranges from 1.91 to 2.17. Line 43.5 offers the Under at only 1.89, so we take the extra point at a higher price. With two struggling offences, a short week and a quarterback returning from injury, we rate the chance of 44 points or fewer higher than the roughly 52 percent the odds imply.
Betting tip: Under 44.5 points @ 1.91 (Paddy Power)
Odds were taken from OddsCapo on Thursday and may have changed. Always check the price with the bookmaker before you bet.
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