The teams
France are second in the group on ten points, level with Italy, who are ahead on head-to-head. Les Bleus opened with 1-0 wins away to Türkiye and Belgium, drew 1-1 at home to Italy and beat Belgium 4-1, before losing 3-1 in Italy on Thursday after Michael Olise had given them the lead. A draw secures a top-two finish, and a win would make France group winners if Italy fail to beat Belgium in the simultaneous game. Eight goals in five group matches is a modest return for this squad, and several regulars are missing: Ousmane Dembélé and William Saliba were not selected, while Aurélien Tchouaméni and Marcus Thuram have withdrawn injured. Kylian Mbappé sat out the Italy game with muscular discomfort but is back in training and expected to return, whereas Désiré Doué is a doubt.
Türkiye have lost all five games, scoring three and conceding thirteen, and are certain to finish bottom and drop to League B. Vincenzo Montella has left, and Sergen Yalçın lost his first match in charge 2-1 at home to Belgium, with Arda Güler scoring the Turkish goal. Türkiye have scored in three of their last four games, but never more than once. Abdülkerim Bardakcı is available again after suspension, while Kenan Yıldız is out injured according to reports.
The reverse fixture in Kocaeli on the opening matchday ended 1-0 to France, with Mbappé scoring. France have won the clear majority of the teams' meetings. English referee Chris Kavanagh takes charge. We expect France to have most of the ball and most of the chances, but they need only a point, are without several key attacking players and have rarely run up big scores in this campaign.
Risks, odds and our bet
The obvious risk is that France click. Türkiye have conceded thirteen goals in five games, France scored four against Belgium, and Mbappé and Olise can change a match in a matter of minutes. A 3-1 home win, a scoreline many previews predict, would beat us, and a Turkish side with nothing left to play for could leave space late on. We prefer the goals market to the 1X2 because a France win is priced short. We chose under 3.5 rather than under 2.5 because it still lands on 2-0, 2-1 and 3-0, the kind of controlled home win we see as the most likely outcome.
At OddsCapo, the bet is available at 2.00 with Bet365, which corresponds to an implied probability of 50 per cent. The market expects a high-scoring game, but three of France's five group matches, including the first meeting with Türkiye, produced two goals or fewer. With France's attack weakened and a point enough for Zidane's side, we put the chance of three goals or fewer at around 60 per cent, which makes the price look generous. That's why we're backing under 3.5 goals.
Betting tip: Under 3.5 goals @ 2.00 (Bet365)
