France have made a perfect start under Zidane, with six points from two away games. They won 1-0 against Türkiye in Kocaeli and then 1-0 against Belgium in Brussels, where Michael Olise settled it in the 88th minute. The bad news is that Kylian Mbappé injured his left knee while scoring against Türkiye and has left the squad. Ibrahima Konaté is also out with a collateral ligament injury, and Leny Yoro has received his first senior call-up. Even so, the defence has been the foundation: France kept seven clean sheets in their last ten internationals, including five in the World Cup, where the run ended with a 2-0 semi-final defeat to Spain and a 6-4 loss to England in the bronze match.
Italy arrive with three points and a lot of questions. Roberto Mancini returned as head coach in July after the Azzurri missed a third straight World Cup, losing the play-off final to Bosnia and Herzegovina on penalties in March. His comeback began with a 2-0 home defeat to Belgium in Rome, where the crowd jeered the team, before a convincing 4-1 win in Bursa against Türkiye, with goals from Bastoni, Frattesi, Kayode and Pio Esposito. Esposito now has six goals in eleven caps. Giacomo Raspadori has left the camp injured, and Italian media expect Mancini to make several changes from the side that won in Bursa.
Recent meetings have favoured France, who have won four of the last five. The exception was Italy's 3-1 win at the Parc des Princes in September 2024, while France won the return game 3-1 at San Siro two months later. On Friday, we expect France to have more of the ball and set the tempo, as they did in Brussels. Without Mbappé, they have looked more patient than explosive in attack. Italy will likely sit deeper and look for transitions, but they scored nothing against Belgium when they faced a well-organised defence.
The main risk to our pick is Italy's ability to find the net. They have scored in four of their last five matches, and France are missing Konaté at the back. An early goal from either side could also open the game up, as the 6-4 bronze match showed. We considered the cards market given the Spanish referee Jesús Gil Manzano's strict reputation, but France and Italy have rarely been booked much in recent games, so the case did not hold up. The match result offers little value with France such clear favourites, which is why we have chosen "both teams to score – No".
Pinnacle offers 2.32 on both teams not scoring, which implies a probability of roughly 43 percent. With France keeping clean sheets in seven of their last ten matches and both Nations League wins ending 1-0, we think the chance is higher than that. Mbappé's absence also makes a narrow France win or a low-scoring game more likely than an open exchange. That's why we're backing both teams to score – No at 2.32.
Betting tip: Both teams to score – No @ 2.32 (Pinnacle)
Odds were taken from OddsCapo on Thursday and may have changed. Always check the price with the bookmaker before you bet.
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