Zinedine Zidane has started his reign as France head coach with two away wins and a draw. Les Bleus won 1-0 in both Türkiye and Brussels before being held 1-1 by Italy in Saint-Denis on Friday, so Zidane is still waiting for his first home win. France dominated the ball against Italy but only scored through a Michael Olise free kick, and Olise has now scored two of the team's three goals in the group. Kylian Mbappé injured his knee while scoring the winner against Türkiye and has returned to Real Madrid. Dayot Upamecano is suspended after his red card against Italy, while Ibrahima Konaté is injured and William Saliba is not in the squad. That leaves an inexperienced centre-back pairing in front of Mike Maignan. Before the autumn, France ended the World Cup with a semi-final defeat to Spain and a loss to England in the third-place match.
Belgium also have a new coach in Mark van Bommel, who took over after the World Cup. His side won 2-0 in Italy, lost 1-0 at home to France and then beat Türkiye 3-0 in Liège on Friday, with Kevin De Bruyne scoring twice and Romelu Lukaku adding the third. That win came at a cost. De Bruyne and captain Youri Tielemans are both suspended, which strips Belgium of the two players who usually dictate their midfield. Thibaut Courtois is not in the squad and Jérémy Doku is injured, so the visitors will rely on a reshaped midfield and pace on the flanks from the likes of Dodi Lukébakio.
France have won the last six meetings between the sides, and the pattern is striking: four of those six games ended 1-0 or 2-1, and four of them finished with fewer than three goals. That includes the World Cup semi-final in 2018, the Euro 2024 last-16 tie and the reverse fixture in Brussels a week earlier, which Olise settled in the 88th minute. With Mbappé and De Bruyne both missing, we expect a controlled game in which France have most of the ball but struggle to create clear chances, much like against Italy, while a weakened Belgian midfield is likely to sit deeper than usual.
There are clear risks. France's makeshift centre-back pairing could gift Belgium a goal, and Belgium will have an unfamiliar goalkeeper in Courtois' absence. Belgium's own games have also been more open than France's, with five goals scored in three group matches, and an early goal could force the trailing side to open up. We still prefer the total goals market to the match result. France are rightly favourites, but their price leaves little margin given how narrow their wins have been, and Under 2.5 goals covers both a tight French win and a draw.
The market prices this as a fairly high-scoring game, with Over 2.5 goals trading at around 1.50. Pinnacle offers 2.68 on Under 2.5 goals, which implies a probability of roughly 37 percent. Based on France's results under Zidane, the head-to-head record and the absences on both sides, we rate the chance of two goals or fewer clearly higher than that, at a little over 50 percent. That's why we're backing Under 2.5 goals in Saint-Denis.
Betting tip: Under 2.5 goals @ 2.68 (Pinnacle)
Odds were taken from OddsCapo on Sunday and may have changed. Always check the price with the bookmaker before you bet.
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