England took bronze at the World Cup after a wild third-place play-off that ended 6-4 against France, with Bukayo Saka scoring a hat-trick. Before that they lost 2-1 to Argentina in the semi-final. Tuchel's team scored plenty of goals at the tournament but also conceded a fair number, and both teams scored in each of England's last five World Cup games. For Saturday, Declan Rice, Cole Palmer, Marcus Rashford, Kobbie Mainoo and Tino Livramento are all missing. That mainly weakens the midfield, but with Harry Kane, Jude Bellingham and Saka there is still plenty of goal threat.
Spain won the World Cup with a 1-0 win over Argentina in the final after extra time. They conceded only two goals in eight matches and kept seven clean sheets, which says a lot about their defending. Rodri and Pedri run the midfield, and with Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams on the flanks Spain have one of the most dangerous attacks in the world. Pedro Porro and goalkeeper Joan García are out injured, but the squad is largely intact.
Recent meetings have produced goals. Spain won the Euro 2024 final 2-1, and in the 2018 Nations League Spain won 2-1 at Wembley while England won 3-2 in Seville. The 2016 friendly ended 2-2. So both teams have scored in each of the last four meetings. The likely pattern is Spain dominating the ball, while England have the quality to punish them on the break through Saka, Kane and Bellingham. At the same time, Spain have the tools to find gaps in an England side missing several key midfielders.
The biggest risk is Spain's defence, the best at the World Cup. Spain have not lost a match in normal time for a very long time, and if they control possession England could get very few chances. England's midfield without Rice and Mainoo may also struggle to win the ball back. We have chosen both teams to score rather than a match result because the 1X2 market is close: 3.15 on England, 3.60 on the draw and 2.42 on Spain. We think both sides will score whoever wins.
The best price on both teams to score – Yes is 1.69 with Coolbet, while other bookmakers are around 1.65–1.67. The price implies a probability of just under 60 per cent. Given the last four meetings, England's high-scoring tournament and Spain's attacking quality, we think the chance is slightly higher than that, although Spain's defence means it is far from certain.
Betting tip: Both teams to score – Yes @ 1.69 (Coolbet)
Odds were taken from OddsCapo on Friday and may have changed. Always check the price with the bookmaker before you bet.
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