The teams
Thomas Tuchel's side have nine points from four games. A 2–3 defeat to Spain was followed by wins over Czechia (2–0 and 3–0) and the rout in Croatia, leaving England with a 14–3 goal difference. A draw is enough to secure a quarter-final place, and Spain await in Madrid three days later. The squad has thinned out, though. Marc Guéhi withdrew after picking up an injury with Manchester City and has been replaced by Dan Burn, while Bukayo Saka, who scored twice in Rijeka, Cole Palmer and Phil Foden were all left out. Harry Kane, according to reports, needs only to appear to break Peter Shilton's record of 125 caps, and Jude Bellingham and Declan Rice still give the midfield real quality.
Croatia arrive in a very different state. Slaven Bilić's side have three points and a 4–14 goal difference: a 2–1 win in Prague was followed by defeats of 4–1 and 2–1 to Spain either side of the October collapse. The absentee list is long. Ivan Perišić is suspended after his red card against Spain, while Andrej Kramarić, Marin Pongračić and Franjo Ivanović are all missing through injury or illness. With pointless Czechia visiting Osijek on Sunday, Croatia's real priority is avoiding last place and relegation to League B.
England have won the last four meetings, including 4–2 at the World Cup in June and the 7–0 in October; Croatia's last win came in the 2018 World Cup semi-final. On paper this is a mismatch, but scorelines like Rijeka rarely repeat themselves. We expect Bilić to set up deeper and more compactly than last time, with the midfield tasked with slowing the tempo. England should dominate the ball, but without Saka and with possible rotation ahead of Madrid, their cutting edge may be blunter than it was in October.
Risks, odds and our bet
The obvious risk is that England simply pick up where they left off. Each of their three group wins came by at least two goals, and one early goal could force Croatia to open up, which is exactly what went wrong for them in Rijeka. We chose Croatia +1.5 rather than +0.5 or +1 because an England win remains the most likely outcome; this line also covers a one-goal England win, a draw or a Croatia win. Backing England −1.5 at this price would require more faith in a repeat than the circumstances justify.
Croatia +1.5 is priced at 2.25 at Paf, an implied probability of 44.4 per cent. Our estimate is around 47 per cent. England are clear favourites to win, but we expect a tighter game than the handicap suggests, given England's absentees, the trip to Spain on Sunday and a Croatia side with more reason to defend than to attack. The edge is modest, and we are honest about that. That's why we're backing Croatia +1.5.
Betting tip: Croatia +1.5 @ 2.25 (Paf)
