Elversberg's debut season in the top flight has been a story of two halves. At home they beat Bayer Leverkusen 3-2 on the opening weekend and Augsburg 4-3 earlier this month, and only a Harry Kane winner gave Bayern Munich a 2-1 win in Saarland. Away from home it has been harder: after a 4-3 win at Borussia Mönchengladbach, Vincent Wagner's side drew 0-0 at Schalke, lost 1-0 at Union Berlin and were beaten 4-0 at RB Leipzig last weekend. On Tuesday they went out of the DFB-Pokal after a 2-0 home defeat to Darmstadt. That means Elversberg have failed to score in four of their last five competitive matches. Jan Gyamerah, Luis Seifert, Tom Zimmerschied and Noah Darvich are all expected to miss out.
Mainz under Urs Fischer are the opposite: dangerous on the road, fragile at home. They have won all three Bundesliga away games, 5-0 at Hamburg, 4-3 at Gladbach and 1-0 at Schalke, scoring ten and keeping two clean sheets. At home, by contrast, they have lost three in a row, against Eintracht Frankfurt, Leverkusen and Werder Bremen. On Tuesday they were knocked out of the cup after losing 2-0 at Bochum, so both teams have had the same short turnaround and no European football this week. Dominik Kohr and Silas are long-term absentees, while Nadiem Amiri missed the cup game and is a doubt.
The clubs have met twice before, both times in the DFB-Pokal in Elversberg: a 2-2 draw in 2021, when Mainz went through, and a 1-0 Mainz win in 2023. Both came when Elversberg were a lower-league side, so they say little about Friday. More relevant is the matchup. Elversberg, apart from the 4-3 win over Augsburg, have struggled to break teams down since mid-September. Fischer's teams are compact away from home, and Mainz kept clean sheets in two of their three league away games, winning 5-0 and 1-0.
The case against our pick is clear. Every one of Elversberg's three home league games has seen both teams score, and the hosts have shown they can punish a defence on their own ground. Mainz have also conceded in four of their seven league games, and their recent home results show they can be opened up. A single Elversberg goal kills the bet, even if Mainz win comfortably. We considered backing Mainz to win, but at short odds that is a less attractive bet against a home side that has already beaten Leverkusen. Instead we are backing a scenario that can arrive through several scorelines: a Mainz clean sheet away from home, or a tight, low-scoring game.
At OddsCapo, both teams to score: No is priced at 3.00 with Sky Bet, an implied probability of 33.3 per cent. The market expects goals at both ends, mainly because of Elversberg's high-scoring home games. We think it underrates how blunt the hosts have looked over the past month and how well Mainz have defended away from home. We put the chance that at least one team fails to score at around 37 per cent, which leaves a small edge at this price. That's why we're backing both teams to score: No.
Betting tip: Both teams to score: No @ 3.00 (Sky Bet)
Odds were taken from OddsCapo on Friday and may have changed. Always check the price with the bookmaker before you bet.
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