The teams
Edmonton have 27 points from 18 games (12-3-3) and lead the Pacific. Ten of the 12 wins came in regulation, the figure that matters for this market. The attack is joint best in the league at 4.11 goals per game, and the power play runs at 33.8 per cent. Connor McDavid has a point in all 18 games and 47 in total, with Leon Draisaitl on 34. The weak spots are a 75 per cent penalty kill, 2.94 goals against per game and a modest 5-3-2 home record. Zach Hyman and Devon Levi came off injured reserve on Saturday, while Isaac Howard, Matt Savoie, Mattias Janmark and Frederik Andersen remain out. Levi (7-1-0, .889 save percentage) made 20 saves in Saturday's 4-2 win over Vancouver and is expected to start, though that is unconfirmed and Tristan Jarry is the alternative.
New York are 10-7-1 and have beaten St. Louis, Philadelphia and Seattle in their last three games. However, the Rangers are 8-2-0 at home and only 2-5-1 on the road, and 4-5-1 over their last ten. Igor Shesterkin is out for the season, and Dylan Garand has carried the load with a 6-6-1 record and a .906 save percentage. Joonas Korpisalo returned from injury with 25 saves in Seattle, and according to the latest reports the two are expected to alternate, which points to Garand here, also unconfirmed. Sean Durzi and Joe Veleno are on injured reserve. The attack is mid-table at 3.06 goals per game, led by Adam Fox (22 points), but the penalty kill, at about 89 per cent, ranks second in the league. Neither team is on a back-to-back: both last played on Saturday, and this is the second stop on a four-game road trip for New York.
Garand was in goal when Edmonton won 4-1 in New York on 1 November, with Matt Tomkins making 27 saves at the other end. According to the club's game notes, the Oilers have taken points in each of the last six meetings (5-0-1), although older results say little now that Shesterkin is gone. The central duel is Edmonton's power play against the Rangers' penalty kill, strength against strength. If New York stay out of the box, this can become a tighter game than the scoring numbers suggest. If they do not, Edmonton have the finishing talent to pull away.
Risks, odds and our bet
The main risk lies in how the market is defined. We are backing Edmonton in the 1X2 over 60 minutes of regular time, so overtime and a shootout do not count: if the game is level after three periods, the bet loses even if Edmonton go on to win. Five of the Oilers' 18 games have gone beyond regulation. Goaltending is a further uncertainty, with neither starter confirmed, and Levi's save percentage leaves little margin behind a team that concedes close to three a game. We still prefer this market to the puck line, which needs a two-goal margin, and to the totals, where the line is already set high.
Edmonton are priced at 2.08 with ATG via OddsCapo, which implies a probability of 48.1 per cent. We put the chance of an Oilers win inside 60 minutes at around 50 per cent, given their scoring edge, the Rangers' road record and the absence of New York's first-choice goaltender. That is a small margin, and a change of goaltender or a shorter price could remove it. That's why we're backing Edmonton Oilers to win in regular time.
Betting tip: Edmonton Oilers to win (60 min) @ 2.08 (ATG)
