Dortmund opened the league season with four straight wins before drawing 2-2 with Werder Bremen and 0-0 at Union Berlin. They sit second on 14 points, level with Bayern, and have conceded just four goals in six matches, the best record in the division. The attack has cooled, though: two goals in the last two league games, a 1-0 Champions League defeat at Bodø/Glimt on 14 October and then a long trip to Baku on Tuesday, where Serhou Guirassy scored twice in a 2-1 win over Sabah. Kovač says nobody picked up a new injury in Azerbaijan. Karetsas and Prates remain unavailable.
Frankfurt are 11th on eight points after two wins, two draws and two defeats, and have let in 16 goals, six of them in a heavy loss at RB Leipzig. Last weekend's 1-0 home win over Köln was their first home win and first league clean sheet of the season, and Hütter wants the same running and defensive discipline in Dortmund. Playmaker Can Uzun, who had started every league game until then, missed the Köln match entirely, while Malik Pimpong is a doubt. Frankfurt are not in Europe this season and have had a full week to prepare.
History points firmly towards Dortmund, who have won 14 of their last 15 home Bundesliga meetings with Frankfurt. The exception was a 2-1 Frankfurt win in April 2021, with Hütter on the bench. The last two league meetings, though, finished 3-2 to Dortmund and 3-3, so the games have recently been tight. We expect Dortmund to control the ball against a Frankfurt side that will defend deep and looks for transitions. Captain Robin Koch called it one of the toughest games of the season.
The obvious risk is that Frankfurt's defence collapses the way it did in Leipzig. Dortmund have the quality to win by two or three, and a crowd that will be loud. Even so, Dortmund have looked less sharp in front of goal since the international break, this is their third match in eight days, and Kovač may rotate with the DFB-Pokal next week. That is why we prefer the Asian handicap to a straight bet on the outcome. Frankfurt +1.5 wins if Frankfurt win, draw or lose by a single goal, so it only loses if Dortmund win by two clear goals or more.
At OddsCapo, Eintracht Frankfurt +1.5 is priced at 1.70 with Pinnacle, an implied probability of 58.8 per cent. We put Dortmund's chance of winning by two or more at around 38 per cent, which gives Frankfurt +1.5 a probability of about 62 per cent. The margin is not huge, but a heavily fancied home side that has been short of goals, tired legs and a visiting team that has just found some defensive stability give the price a small edge.
Betting tip: Eintracht Frankfurt +1.5 (Asian handicap) @ 1.70 (Pinnacle)
Odds were taken from OddsCapo on Saturday and may have changed. Always check the price with the bookmaker before you bet.
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