Antonio Hidalgo's team have gone six league matches without a win, and according to reports their last league victory came at Villarreal in early September. The recent run tells the story: a 3-2 defeat at Real Sociedad, a 1-1 draw with Levante and a narrow 1-0 loss at Atlético Madrid. The league record stands at 13 goals scored and 13 conceded. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang is struggling to be fit. In disciplinary terms Deportivo are one of the calmer sides in the division: 18 yellow cards in ten league games, or 1.8 per match, and their matches average 3.9 yellow cards in total. At Riazor that figure falls to 3.4.
Osasuna have turned back to a familiar face in the dugout. Jagoba Arrasate returned in October for a second spell, and his first game back brought a 2-0 home win over Racing Santander before a 2-0 defeat at Sevilla last time out. The Pamplona side have scored ten league goals and conceded 20, and according to reports their only away league win this season came on the opening day at Celta. They are a more combative side than Deportivo, with 26 yellow cards, 2.6 per match. Their games average 4.4 yellow cards overall, but on the road that drops to 3.4, mainly because their opponents have been booked only once per game on average. According to reports, Herrando, Aimar Oroz and Del Castillo are unavailable.
The head-to-head record offers little guidance. The clubs have not met in La Liga for many years, so old results say little about the current sides. The referee matters more here. González Esteban is in his first season in Primera and has shown 27 yellow cards and two reds in five league games, an average of 5.4 yellows per match, clearly above the league norm. Arrasate's teams tend to press high and squeeze opponents, which can lead to tactical fouls and more decisions for the referee.
The referee is the obvious risk. Five matches is a small sample, but his numbers point to a busy evening, and a red card or a late flashpoint can quickly push the count up. Arrasate's intensity and the pressure on both teams to end poor runs could also raise the temperature. That is exactly why we avoid the 4.5 line and choose Under 5.5 cards instead: the extra card gives us a cushion against a referee who is stricter than these two teams' profiles. According to the season data, only one of Deportivo's ten league games and two of Osasuna's have gone above 5.5 yellow cards. Bookmakers settle red cards differently, so check the market rules before you bet.
Under 5.5 cards is available at 1.56 with Pinnacle at OddsCapo, which gives an implied probability of 64.1 per cent. Combining the low card counts for Deportivo at home and Osasuna away with an adjustment for the referee's strict start, we put the chance at around 68 per cent. It is a modest edge rather than a large one, but the price still holds value given how rarely these two teams' matches have reached six bookings this season. That is why we are backing the under.
Betting tip: Under 5.5 cards @ 1.56 (Pinnacle)
Odds were taken from OddsCapo on Monday and may have changed. Always check the price with the bookmaker before you bet.
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