Antonio Hidalgo's side showed early in the season that they can hurt good teams, beating Valencia 3-1 at home and winning 3-2 at Villarreal. Since then the results have dried up: 1-1 at Getafe, a 1-0 home defeat to Sevilla, 1-1 at home to Real Betis and a 3-2 loss at Real Sociedad last Sunday. The defeat at Anoeta was more frustrating than alarming. Depor fought back from 3-0 down through Mario Soriano and a Yeremay Hernández penalty, had 19 shots to 12 and, according to the match statistics, won the expected-goals battle 1.85 to 1.36. The worry is at the back, where they have conceded in every league game so far, and in the squad. Lorenzo Amatucci is suspended after his late red card in San Sebastián, while Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, Marc Casadó and Zakaria Eddahchouri are all injured.
Levante arrive with 6 points from seven games and have played one match fewer than Depor. Their home games have been chaotic: a 5-2 win over Real Betis, a 4-2 defeat to Barcelona and a 3-3 draw with Sevilla on Monday, when they snatched a point deep into stoppage time. Away from Valencia it has been a very different story. According to the available stats, Levante have taken two points from four away games and scored only once, with a goalless draw at Málaga and a 3-1 defeat at Villarreal among those results. Overall they have conceded 15 goals in seven matches, ten of them in their last three. Iván Romero and Roger Brugué have three league goals each, but Karl Etta Eyong, Hugo Sotelo and Álex Primo are reported to be unavailable.
The recent head-to-head favours Levante, who won both meetings in the Segunda División in 2024/25, 2-1 on each occasion, including at Riazor in January 2025. Those games were played in a different division with different squads, so we give them limited weight. The more relevant picture is how the teams match up now. Depor like to have the ball and push opponents back, averaging around 5.5 corners per game, while Levante have produced only about 2.5 corners per away game. On the road Levante tend to defend deep and have struggled to create chances, which should give the home side long spells of pressure.
The risks are clear. Depor are winless in four, have not kept a clean sheet and will miss Amatucci in midfield. Levante's late comeback against Sevilla showed that they keep going, and one counterattacking goal could be enough to earn a draw. We considered both teams to score, but Levante's lack of goals away from home makes that market less attractive than the season averages suggest. A handicap or draw-no-bet would soften the draw risk, but we prefer the straight home win: it is the most direct way to back the clearest edge in this match, Depor's home attack against Levante's blunt away form. Levante also have a shorter turnaround after playing on Monday night.
At OddsCapo, a Deportivo win is available at 2.12 with BetMGM. That price implies a probability of roughly 47 percent, and the market as a whole treats this as close to a coin flip. Given Depor's underlying numbers in recent weeks and Levante's poor away record, we put the home side's chances at around 50 percent. The edge is not large, but we think the price is fair to slightly generous. That is why we are backing Deportivo La Coruña to win.
Betting tip: Deportivo La Coruña to win @ 2.12 (BetMGM)
Odds were taken from OddsCapo on Friday and may have changed. Always check the price with the bookmaker before you bet.
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