Denver have won three of their last four games, most recently a 23-17 comeback win over the Chargers at SoFi Stadium on Sunday. The offence is not pretty – Bo Nix went 16 of 27 for 123 yards there and has averaged under 6.0 yards per attempt in four of five games – but the defence is carrying the team. Denver have forced seven turnovers, sacked Justin Herbert five times in Week 5 and have allowed 20.0 points per game over their last four outings. Their two home games ended in wins over the Rams and the Jaguars, and since the start of 2024 the Broncos are 16-3 at home. The big blow is in the secondary: cornerback Pat Surtain II and safety Talanoa Hufanga are both ruled out with ankle injuries, while Riley Moss (ribs) is listed as questionable.
Seattle arrive with a strong defence and a sloppy offence. Macdonald's unit has the most takeaways in the NFL (11) and has held all five opponents under 5.0 yards per play. The problem is at the other end: the Seahawks have committed eight turnovers in their last three games, five of them Sam Darnold interceptions, and lost two of those games – 33-31 in Washington and 32-29 at home to San Francisco, where 21 of the 49ers' points came off Seattle turnovers. Jaxon Smith-Njigba leads the league with 583 receiving yards and seven touchdowns and carries no injury designation, but Darnold threw for only 168 and 195 yards in the last two games. According to reports, running back Zach Charbonnet and linebacker Drake Thomas will miss the game.
The last meeting came in Week 1 of 2024, when Seattle won 26-20 at home in Nix's NFL debut, but both rosters look very different two years on. The matchup on Thursday is fairly clear: two defences that create turnovers against two offences that struggle on third down. Seattle's passing game leans heavily on Smith-Njigba, who has 49 per cent of the team's receiving yards, and that is exactly where Denver are short-handed. On the other hand, Denver's pass rush can make life difficult for a quarterback who has been sacked eight times in the last two games, and every Seattle giveaway gives a limited Broncos offence a short field.
The risks are real. Without Surtain, Smith-Njigba could have a big night, and Seattle have been excellent on the road – 16-3 since 2024 and 13-5-1 against the spread away from home under Macdonald. Denver's offence can also stall for long stretches. We still prefer the points to the outright win: in a game the market expects to be decided by around a field goal, a Broncos defeat by one or two points still lands the bet, and in a low-total game that cushion matters. That is why we are backing Denver +2.5 rather than the moneyline.
At OddsCapo, Denver Broncos +2.5 is priced at 2.00 with William Hill. Around the market the line sits between Seattle -2 and -3, with Denver +2.5 generally available at just under even money. We put Denver's chance of covering at around 54 per cent, compared with an implied probability of 50 per cent. The edge is not huge, but given Denver's home record, a total that has dropped from 42.5 towards 40.5 and Seattle's turnover problems, we see value in the bet from 1.87 and upwards.
Betting tip: Denver Broncos +2.5 @ 2.00 (William Hill)
Odds were taken from OddsCapo on Thursday and may have changed. Always check the price with the bookmaker before you bet.
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