Denmark lost 3-2 to Norway in Oslo on Thursday. Mikkel Damsgaard scored from a free kick and Rasmus Højlund also found the net, but Oscar Bobb and two goals from Erling Haaland decided it. It continued a difficult period: Denmark missed the World Cup after losing the play-off final to Czechia on penalties in Prague, and they have won just one of their last six games, 4-0 against North Macedonia. They have conceded in four of those six. Brian Riemer is under pressure to get a result in front of the home crowd, and no new injuries have been reported in the Danish squad.
Wales lost 1-0 to Portugal in Lisbon, where João Félix scored in the first half. Craig Bellamy's side spent long spells defending and faced more than 20 shots, but Brennan Johnson hit the woodwork late on. Wales also missed the World Cup after a play-off defeat on penalties against Bosnia and Herzegovina, and they are five games without a win. They have scored in five of their last six matches, though, and have not kept a clean sheet in any of them. The absentee list is long: Harry Wilson, Joe Rodon, Karl Darlow, Nathan Broadhead, Dylan Lawlor, Rubin Colwill and Isaak Davies are all missing.
Denmark have the better recent record in the fixture. They won both Nations League meetings in 2018, 2-0 at home and 2-1 in Cardiff, and beat Wales 4-0 in the last 16 of Euro 2020. The current form lines point towards goals at both ends: both teams have scored in four of Denmark's last six games and in five of Wales's last six. Denmark need to attack at home, and that should leave space for Johnson and Daniel James to run into on the counter.
The risks are clear. Wales are without Wilson and Broadhead, two of their most creative attacking players, and in Lisbon they spent most of the game in their own half. If Bellamy sets up just as deep in Copenhagen, Wales could struggle to create chances. Only one of the last three head-to-head meetings produced goals at both ends. We still prefer both teams to score over a Denmark win at 1.50, which is short for a team with one win in six, and over the −1 handicap, which needs a two-goal margin from a team that keeps conceding.
Both teams to score – Yes is priced at 2.03, which implies a probability of just under 50 per cent. Given how often both teams have been scoring and conceding, we think the price for Yes has value. That's why we're backing both teams to score.
Betting tip: Both teams to score – Yes @ 2.03 (Coolbet)
Odds were taken from OddsCapo on Saturday and may have changed. Always check the price with the bookmaker before you bet.
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