Brian Riemer's Denmark opened the campaign with a 3-2 defeat in Oslo, where Erling Haaland scored twice and Mikkel Damsgaard and Rasmus Højlund replied. Three days later they beat Wales 2-0 at Parken, through a Ben Davies own goal and a strike from Gustav Isaksen. Riemer has been under pressure since March, when Denmark drew 2-2 with Czechia after extra time in the World Cup play-off final and went out on penalties. The squad is also thin. Patrick Dorgu was sent home with a thigh injury picked up against Wales, and according to reports Andreas Christensen, Alexander Bah, Kasper Dolberg and Albert Grønbæk are unavailable too. Mohamed Daramy is expected to replace Dorgu, with Højlund up front and Morten Hjulmand and Pierre-Emile Højbjerg in central midfield.
Portugal have made a perfect start under Jorge Jesus, who was appointed in July after Roberto Martínez left following the World Cup last-16 defeat by Spain. João Félix scored in both games. He got the only goal in a 1-0 home win over Wales and opened the scoring in the 2-1 win in Oslo, where Gonçalo Ramos got the winner. Cristiano Ronaldo started against Wales but was an unused substitute in Norway, so it is open whether Jesus picks him or Ramos up front. Francisco Conceição was injured in Oslo and is expected to miss out. Bruno Fernandes sat out the Norway game and is back in training but is still a doubt. Portugal have also been tight at the back, conceding four goals in their last seven matches, World Cup included.
The sides met twice in the Nations League quarter-finals in March 2025. Denmark won the first leg 1-0 in Copenhagen before Portugal turned the tie round with a 5-2 win after extra time in Lisbon. In ten competitive meetings since 2006, Portugal have won five and Denmark four. We expect Portugal to have more of the ball, with a back four built around Rúben Dias and a midfield that can control the tempo. Denmark will try to find Damsgaard between the lines and get Højlund running in behind.
The risks are real. Parken is sold out, and Denmark beat Portugal there only 18 months ago. Portugal have not always been clinical either: 19 shots against Wales produced a single deflected goal. If Bruno Fernandes is not fit, they lose an important creator, and a new coach may still be settling on his best eleven. We looked at alternatives such as protecting the stake against a draw or backing goals at both ends. Both are reasonable, but both come at much shorter prices.
Interwetten's 2.10 on a Portugal win is at the top of the range we have seen this week. Most prices have been around 1.85-2.10, and 2.10 implies a probability of just under 48 per cent. Draw no bet on Portugal is around 1.54 and both teams to score around 1.63. Given Portugal's form, Denmark's injury list and the difference in squad depth, we think Portugal win this match more often than 2.10 suggests. The draw is the main risk, and we accept it for the bigger price. That's why we're backing Portugal to win.
Betting tip: Portugal to win @ 2.10 (Interwetten)
Odds were taken from OddsCapo on Wednesday and may have changed. Always check the price with the bookmaker before you bet.
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