Baltimore opened Jesse Minter's first season as head coach with a 41-23 win in Indianapolis, where Derrick Henry ran for 144 yards and three touchdowns. Week 2 was a setback: the Ravens led the New Orleans Saints 14-3 but lost 24-17 at home. The injury report is not clean either. Left tackle Ronnie Stanley is out with a toe injury, and wide receiver Zay Flowers is listed as questionable with a hamstring problem after practising for the first time on Friday. Lamar Jackson carries no injury designation.
Dallas also split their opening two games. Brian Schottenheimer's side lost 28-20 to the New York Giants, running for just 69 yards and allowing 165 on the ground, before bouncing back with a 37-20 win over Washington. Dak Prescott was excellent in that game, completing 26 of 31 passes for 279 yards and four touchdowns, with CeeDee Lamb catching eight balls for 153 yards and two scores. Prescott now has six touchdown passes and one interception through two games. The problem is the secondary: cornerback Cobie Durant, safeties Malik Hooker and P.J. Locke and linebacker DeMarvion Overshown are all ruled out.
The Ravens lead the all-time series 6-1, and they won the most recent meeting 28-25 in Arlington in 2024, when Henry ran for 151 yards and two touchdowns. That is the key matchup again. According to SI, Dallas rank 29th in the league in EPA per play allowed, and the run defence has already been gashed once this season. Baltimore lead the NFL in net yards per play and should be able to lean on Henry and Jackson's legs against a depleted Cowboys defence.
There are clear risks. Without Stanley, and possibly without Flowers, Baltimore's pass protection and passing game are weaker, and Prescott is in form. The Ravens have also covered the spread in only three of their last ten games. The setting adds uncertainty too: a neutral venue, a first NFL game on the Maracanã grass, and warm, humid conditions forecast for the evening. That is why we prefer the moneyline to laying three or more points on the spread. We only need Baltimore to win, not to win by a margin.
OddsCapo shows Baltimore Ravens to win at 1.58 with Paf, while US books price the Ravens between roughly 1.57 and 1.65, with the spread at three to three and a half points. The price implies around a 63 per cent chance. Given Dallas's absences in the secondary and Baltimore's edge in the running game, we think that is a fair price for a Ravens win.
Betting tip: Baltimore Ravens to win @ 1.58 (Paf)
Odds were taken from OddsCapo on Sunday and may have changed. Always check the price with the bookmaker before you bet.
18+ | Gamble responsibly | Stodlinjen.se
