Coventry have found the step up hard. Lampard's side lost their first four league games without scoring, including a 5-0 home defeat by Brighton and a narrow 1-0 loss at Manchester City. The breakthrough came on 19 September, when Jay Dasilva's second-half goal earned a 1-0 win at Nottingham Forest – the club's first Premier League victory since April 2001. Even so, Coventry sit 19th with three points, one goal scored and ten conceded, and they have yet to take a point at home. The squad is stretched up front: Taiwo Awoniyi serves the final game of a suspension, Haji Wright has not featured this season and Brandon Thomas-Asante has been pushed into the striker role. Aurele Amenda, Josh Eccles and Luke Woolfenden are also reported to be unavailable.
Newcastle are in their first season under Matthias Jaissle, who succeeded Eddie Howe, and the picture has been mixed. They have eight points from five games, with their only defeat a 4-1 loss at Leeds. They bounced back with a 2-1 home win over Hull, with both goals arriving inside the opening minutes. The away record reads one win and one defeat. Fitness is the main concern: Anthony Elanga and Ewen Jaouen are out, while Amar Dedic, Tino Livramento and Dan Burn are, according to the latest reports, racing to be ready. Jaissle has said he will manage the load of returning internationals carefully.
There is little recent history to lean on. According to reports, the clubs last met in the league almost 17 years ago, when Newcastle won 4-1, which says little about two very different squads today. The match-up itself is clearer. Coventry have struggled to create chances, and figures cited by Sporting Life place them among the weakest sides in the division for shots on target. Newcastle have more attacking quality through Harvey Barnes, Hall and Yoane Wissa, and four of their five league games have produced at least three goals.
The risks are real. Newcastle's underlying numbers have not matched their points tally, a newly appointed head coach is still settling on his best side, and the injury list could force changes in defence. Coventry also showed at Forest that they can win a tight game with a compact block and a single moment. We considered Newcastle draw no bet as a safer option, but the straight win offers a clearly better price, and Coventry's lack of firepower makes a home win the least likely outcome in our view. That is why we are backing Newcastle on the 1X2 market rather than a handicap.
OddsCapo lists Newcastle at 2.25 with Expekt, while the price elsewhere has generally been around 2.15. Odds of 2.25 imply a win probability of roughly 44 per cent. We rate Newcastle's chances at around 47 per cent given Coventry's scoring problems and their poor home record so far. It is not a large edge, and the market sees a close contest, but we think the best available price on the away win offers value.
Betting tip: Newcastle to win @ 2.25 (Expekt)
Odds were taken from OddsCapo on Monday and may have changed. Always check the price with the bookmaker before you bet.
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