Cesc Fàbregas has turned Como into one of Serie A's most enterprising teams, and their first Champions League campaign has started in the same spirit. RB Leipzig were beaten 4-1 on matchday one before a 3-2 defeat away to Feyenoord. In the league, Sunday's 3-1 win over Fiorentina ended a three-game winless run that included a goalless home draw with ten-man Roma. Tasos Douvikas has scored in both European games, while Nico Paz remains the creative hub. The corner numbers stand out: Como have won 7.29 corners per Serie A match this season, their league games have averaged close to twelve corners in total, and they have won 8.50 per game at home, albeit from just two matches. Assane Diao is out, while Trevoh Chalobah and Moise Kean are doubts, according to the latest reports.
Manchester United arrive under real pressure. Michael Carrick's side are without a win in six matches across all competitions, and the 2-0 defeat at Atlético Madrid was followed by a 1-1 draw with Leeds. United have won only one of their last ten Champions League away games. Leny Yoro is suspended after his red card in Madrid, Patrick Dorgu and Benjamin Sesko are unavailable, and Lisandro Martínez went off at half-time against Leeds with a thigh problem. Bruno Fernandes and Bryan Mbeumo remain the main threats going forward. United's Premier League matches have averaged 9.71 corners, with 6.14 won and 3.57 conceded per game, so even in a difficult spell they still win more corners than they give away.
With no head-to-head history to lean on, the style match-up matters more than usual. Como like to control territory at home and build sustained pressure down the flanks, which is exactly the kind of play that produces corners. United, for their part, will need a result to ease the pressure on Carrick, and if they fall behind we expect them to commit more players forward after the break. Como have also conceded in both of their European games, and United have conceded at least twice in eight of their last ten Champions League away matches, according to pre-match statistics. That points towards an open game with action at both ends rather than a tight, low-tempo affair.
The biggest risk is a cagey match. United could choose to sit deeper than usual, and their away league games have averaged fewer corners: 8.75 per match, with only one of four going over 9.5. An early goal could also prompt one side to protect a lead, and the samples are small, with only seven league games for each team. We chose total corners rather than Asian handicap because the result is hard to call between a confident home side and a struggling but talented visiting team, while both clubs' attacking profiles point the same way when it comes to corners. The 9.5 line is the main line, so we avoid paying a heavy price at 8.5.
OddsCapo has Over 9.5 corners at 1.94 with Pinnacle, which corresponds to an implied probability of 51.5 per cent. Combining both teams' figures for corners won and conceded gives us an expected total of just over ten corners, and we put the chance of ten or more at around 55 per cent. That's why we're backing over 9.5 corners in Como.
Betting tip: Over 9.5 corners @ 1.94 (Pinnacle)
Odds were taken from OddsCapo on Wednesday and may have changed. Always check the price with the bookmaker before you bet.
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