Cleveland lost 34-10 in Jacksonville on opening day under first-year head coach Todd Monken, but have since won two in a row: 23-19 in Tampa Bay and 21-18 at home against Carolina. Deshaun Watson, back as the starter after his 2024 Achilles injury, has been uneven. He went 24 of 30 for 238 yards and two touchdowns against the Buccaneers, but only 16 of 30 for 144 yards against the Panthers, although he led the game-winning drive. Tight end Harold Fannin Jr. scored twice last Sunday, rookie receiver Denzel Boston has added a vertical threat, and defensive tackle Mason Graham has a sack in three straight games. The concern is the interior of the offensive line: centre Elgton Jenkins (concussion) and guard Teven Jenkins (back) are both ruled out, as is receiver Tylan Wallace (knee).
Pittsburgh are also 2-1 in Mike McCarthy's first season. They beat Atlanta 20-13, were held to three points in a 20-3 loss in New England, then found their rhythm in a 30-27 win over Cincinnati. Aaron Rodgers threw for 292 yards and three touchdowns in that game, while Jaylen Warren piled up 176 yards from scrimmage. The problem is the secondary. Joey Porter Jr. is out, Jalen Ramsey is questionable with a broken wrist and Brandin Echols is questionable with a concussion. Backup running back Rico Dowdle is also out. According to reports, McCarthy has a 17-8 record in Thursday games as a head coach, which is a fair argument for the visitors on a short week.
Cleveland have had the upper hand in this fixture at home lately, winning the last four meetings on the lakefront: 29-17 in 2022, 13-10 in 2023, 24-19 in 2024 and 13-6 last December. Three of those four were decided by five points or fewer, and the games have often been low-scoring. We expect something similar: two offences that have struggled for consistency, two defences that can create pressure, and a short week that rarely helps attacking football.
The main risk is the Browns' offensive line. Without two interior starters, Watson could be under pressure from T.J. Watt and the Pittsburgh front, and Cleveland have been flagged a lot this season. Rodgers also showed against Cincinnati that the Steelers' offence can hurt anyone when it clicks. That is why we prefer the points to the Browns moneyline. With +3, Cleveland can lose by a field goal and the bet is a push, which means the stake is returned. Three points is the most common winning margin in the NFL, so that cushion matters in a game expected to be this tight.
Pinnacle offers Cleveland Browns +3 at 1.86, which works out to an implied probability of about 54 percent. Given Cleveland's recent home record in this matchup, Pittsburgh's depleted cornerback room and the likelihood of a close, low-scoring game, we think the price is reasonable. That's why we're backing the Browns with a three-point start.
Betting tip: Cleveland Browns +3 @ 1.86 (Pinnacle)
Odds were taken from OddsCapo on Thursday and may have changed. Always check the price with the bookmaker before you bet.
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