The Bears have made an uneven start under Ben Johnson. They won 59-37 at Carolina in Week 1 and ran for 291 yards, but lost 9-3 at home to Minnesota in the rain last week. Chicago reached the Vikings' 1-, 5- and 12-yard lines without scoring a touchdown. Now Caleb Williams is out with a hamstring injury, and several US outlets report that Case Keenum will start. He is 38 and has not started an NFL game since 2023. Tyson Bagent has cleared the concussion protocol but missed much of the week's practice.
The Eagles have won both their games, but by narrow margins: 24-22 against Washington and 24-20 at Tennessee, where Jalen Hurts threw the winning touchdown with nine seconds left. The offence has struggled on first and second down, and Saquon Barkley managed only 33 yards on 13 carries against the Titans. Hollywood Brown and Dallas Goedert are out injured. The defence is run by Vic Fangio, who was the Bears' defensive coordinator from 2015 to 2018 and knows the setting in Chicago well. Against a quarterback who has not played for a long time, that is an advantage.
The Bears won the most recent meeting 24-15 in Philadelphia in November 2025, and according to Covers and CBS the last five meetings between the teams have all gone under the total. The likely game script has Chicago running a lot and draining the clock to protect Keenum. That could mean few drives for the home side against an Eagles defence that gives Fangio the chance to pressure an older quarterback.
The risk is Chicago's running game, which leads the NFL with more than 200 yards per game and can produce big plays. The Eagles have also allowed 21 points per game, and a Hurts turnover could hand the Bears a short field. We ruled out the game total because the line has already dropped from 46.5 to 41.5, and looked instead at Chicago's own points, where we think the quarterback change matters most.
OddsCapo shows the Chicago Bears under 17.5 points at 2.00 with Betinia. With the Eagles 4.5-point favourites and a total of 41.5, the market expects roughly 18.5 points from Chicago. With a 38-year-old making his first start since 2023, we think that is on the high side and that the price offers value. The Eagles are 1.50 to win the game and the Bears 2.77.
Betting tip: Chicago Bears under 17.5 points @ 2.00 (Betinia)
Odds were taken from OddsCapo on Monday and may have changed. Always check the price with the bookmaker before you bet.
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