Chelsea arrive on the back of two straight league wins, 5-1 at home to Bournemouth and 2-0 at Everton, where Pedro Neto scored both goals. That win also brought the club's first Premier League clean sheet since January, which says a lot about how leaky they have been. Before that, Alonso's side went three matches without a win, including a 3-0 defeat at Brentford, a 2-2 draw with Hull and a 2-1 loss to Arsenal. Their games have been open: 4-3 against Brighton and 6-3 against Leeds are recent examples. The big change on Saturday is in goal. Emiliano Martinez fractured his jaw at Everton and has had surgery, so 21-year-old Mike Penders is expected to make his first Premier League start. Reece James (knee) and Jamie Gittens (ankle) are also out, while Cole Palmer is expected to start behind the striker.
Tottenham beat Coventry 3-1 at home on Monday night, but before that they had gone six matches without a win in all competitions. The bigger issue has been at the other end: in the league they have scored only around a goal a game, and two of their recent outings, against Nottingham Forest and Everton, finished 0-0. De Zerbi is also without a long list of attacking players. Xavi Simons, Wilson Odobert, Savio, Lucas Bergvall and Destiny Udogie are all injured, Mykhaylo Mudryk is both injured and ineligible against his parent club, and Rodrigo Bentancur is suspended. Andrew Robertson and Tosin Adarabioyo came off against Coventry and are doubts, according to the latest reports.
History is firmly on Chelsea's side. They have won the last six league meetings, and Tottenham have lost six London derbies in a row in the Premier League. Results from earlier eras should be treated with caution, though, because both clubs have new managers and largely new squads. The more relevant matchup is tactical. De Zerbi's Tottenham like to have the ball, with around 59 per cent average possession according to available data, and they tend to slow games down rather than trade chances. Chelsea's scoring has also been ahead of their underlying numbers: their expected goals are reported at around 1.10 per match, well below their actual output. That points to a game that is more controlled than Chelsea's recent scorelines suggest.
The obvious risk is that Chelsea's matches keep producing goals. A debutant goalkeeper behind a back line that has conceded freely could lead to mistakes, and a single early goal can open up the game. A 3-1, the scoreline several previews are predicting, would beat us. Even so, we prefer the goals market to the result market. Chelsea win prices leave little room, and Tottenham's injuries make them hard to back. On goals, Under 3.5 gives us a margin: 2-1, 2-0, 1-1 and 3-0 all win, and it does not depend on which team takes control.
At OddsCapo, Under 3.5 goals is priced at 1.65 with Stake, an implied probability of 60.6 per cent. The market is pricing this as a high-scoring derby, largely because of Chelsea's recent results. We rate the chance of three goals or fewer at around 68 per cent. Spurs' weakened attack, their low-scoring league games and Chelsea's overperformance in front of goal all point the same way. That gap is why we're backing Under 3.5 goals.
Betting tip: Under 3.5 goals @ 1.65 (Stake)
Odds were taken from OddsCapo on Saturday and may have changed. Always check the price with the bookmaker before you bet.
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