Marco Rose's side have shown two very different faces this autumn. In Europe they won 2-1 at Real Sociedad and then beat Sturm Graz 3-0 at home last Thursday, which leaves them on six points after two rounds. In the Premier League, however, Sunday's 2-0 win over ten-man Sunderland was their first league victory of the season, coming a week after a 5-1 defeat at Chelsea. Evanilson has been the bright spot, scoring against Sturm Graz, Chelsea and Sunderland. The squad is stretched: Alex Scott and Eli Junior Kroupi are both reported to be out, and Amine Adli, Julián Araújo and Veljko Milosavljević have also been on the injury list in recent weeks. According to reports, Bournemouth have lost only one of their last 15 home games in all competitions, so the Vitality remains a difficult place to visit.
Ruben Amorim's Milan opened their Europa League campaign with a 2-0 home defeat by Benfica, fielding a heavily rotated side. Since then the picture has changed. They beat Lecce 3-0, won 4-0 at Salzburg last week, where 19-year-old Alphadjo Cisse scored a hat-trick according to UEFA, and followed that up with a 3-2 home win over Atalanta on Sunday. Milan are fourth in Serie A and unbeaten after seven rounds, with four wins and three draws, and they have scored ten goals in their last three wins. Alexis Saelemaekers is sidelined with a right ankle problem and, according to reports, is not expected back this year, while Filippo Terracciano is reported to be suspended after his red card in Salzburg. With Christian Pulisic, Adrien Rabiot and Goncalo Ramos available, Amorim still has plenty of quality going forward.
This is the first competitive meeting between the two clubs, so there is no head-to-head record to lean on. The match picture tells us more. Bournemouth press high and attack quickly, which worked against both Real Sociedad and Sturm Graz, but according to match reports they were outshot in San Sebastián, and they were badly exposed at Stamford Bridge. Milan have found a better balance since September and carry a goal threat from several positions. That should suit them on the break if Bournemouth commit numbers forward in front of their own crowd.
The risks are clear. Bournemouth are unbeaten in Europe, the home crowd will be loud for a first big European night against an Italian giant, and Milan have already lost once in this competition. Amorim could also rotate again with Serie A games coming thick and fast. A draw is a realistic outcome too, and that is the main argument against a straight win bet. We still stay in the 1X2 market and back the away win, because we think the market is giving too much weight to Bournemouth's European start and too little to the gap in squad quality and current league form.
At OddsCapo, a Milan win is priced at 3.75 with ATG, an implied probability of 26.7 per cent. We put Milan's chances at around 30 per cent, given their unbeaten Serie A run, their response after the Benfica defeat and Bournemouth's fragile Premier League record. The margin is not large, but it is enough for us to see value in backing the away side at this price.
Betting tip: Milan to win @ 3.75 (ATG)
Odds were taken from OddsCapo on Thursday and may have changed. Always check the price with the bookmaker before you bet.
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