Sergej Barbarez's Bosnia and Herzegovina have taken four points from two away games. They drew 0-0 with Poland in Warsaw and then won 4-2 against Romania in Bucharest, where Armin Gigović, Tarik Muharemović, Haris Tabaković and Ermin Mahmić all scored. Earlier this year, Bosnia reached the World Cup via the play-offs, beating both Wales and Italy on penalties. They then reached the round of 32, where they lost 2-0 to the USA. Barbarez is without defenders Amar Dedić and Kenan Busuladžić for this window. According to reports, seven players are one booking away from a suspension, including Sead Kolašinac, Mahmić and Muharemović. Džeko, who has 151 caps and 73 goals, is set to say goodbye in front of the home crowd.
Graham Potter's Sweden lead the group with six points after two home wins at Strawberry Arena. They beat Romania 2-1 and Poland 3-1, and Viktor Gyökeres scored in both games. Benjamin Nygren and Yasin Ayari also found the net against Poland, and Ayari was one of the standout performers. The squad has been weakened, however. Alexander Isak (thigh) and Hjalmar Ekdal have left the camp with minor injuries, and the Swedish FA is not calling up replacements. The bigger issue is at the back. Sweden have now gone 17 matches in a row without a clean sheet, and goalkeeper Viktor Johansson has admitted it is frustrating. This is also their first away game since the World Cup, where they were knocked out 3-0 by France in the round of 32.
The two nations have met only once, when Sweden won a friendly 4-2 in May 2010. That result says very little about the current squads. The matchup is more telling. Both of Sweden's Nations League games produced at least three goals, and Gyökeres gives them a reliable finisher. Bosnia's win in Bucharest ended 4-2, so six goals in one game. In front of a sold-out crowd on Džeko's big night, we expect the hosts to push forward rather than sit deep. Against a Swedish defence that has not kept a clean sheet in 17 matches, that should create chances at both ends.
There are clear risks. Without Isak, Sweden have one fewer attacking option, and Bosnia failed to score both in Warsaw and against the USA at the World Cup. Both teams are also playing their third match in eight days, which could mean rotation and a slower tempo. A tight 1-1 or a 1-0 Sweden win would sink the bet. We considered a straight Sweden win, but an away game in this atmosphere makes the 1X2 market too unpredictable. Both teams to score is also a sensible angle, but over 2.5 goals still pays out if one side runs away with it, for example 3-0 or 0-3. Over 2.5 goals fits the expected game state best: two teams in scoring form and a Swedish defence that keeps conceding.
Pinnacle offer 1.77 on over 2.5 goals, which equals an implied probability of about 56 percent. Given Sweden's run of 17 matches without a clean sheet and the goals both sides have scored this autumn, we think that price is fair. It is not a big-value play, but it is a market well supported by the facts. That's why we're backing over 2.5 goals in Zenica.
Betting tip: Over 2.5 goals @ 1.77 (Pinnacle)
Odds were taken from OddsCapo on Thursday and may have changed. Always check the price with the bookmaker before you bet.
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