Sergej Barbarez's side are unbeaten in the group so far: a goalless draw in Warsaw, a 4-2 win in Romania and a 1-1 draw at home to Sweden on Friday. The results flatter the attack somewhat. According to Sofascore, Bosnia produced 0.31 expected goals in Warsaw and just 0.11 against Sweden, without a single big chance in the latter. Their strength has been the defence, where Nikola Katić, Tarik Muharemović and Sead Kolašinac have been solid. Edin Džeko played his last international against Sweden, and Amar Dedić is reported to be injured. Kerim Alajbegović, who scored the equaliser on Friday, went off late in that match, and his availability is unclear according to the latest reports. It is also uncertain who will start in goal. Haris Tabaković is expected to lead the line in Barbarez's preferred 4-4-2.
Jan Urban's Poland have been inconsistent. They drew 0-0 at home to Bosnia, lost 3-1 in Sweden and then thrashed Romania 6-0. That win ended a run of five matches without a victory, and according to previews Poland have won only two of their last eight away games. The big blow is Lewandowski: he scored a hat-trick against Romania but picked up his second booking of the campaign and has left the camp. Jakub Kamiński is also out with an adductor injury. Urban has said Poland must find "another solution" rather than a like-for-like replacement, with Karol Świderski among the options mentioned. More of the creative burden now falls on Sebastian Szymański and Piotr Zieliński. In the September meeting Poland had 14 shots but only 0.73 expected goals, and just two of their 19 crosses found a teammate.
Poland are unbeaten in six meetings with Bosnia, with four wins and two draws. Only two of those six games saw both teams score: a 2-2 friendly in 2010 and Poland's 2-1 away win in the 2020 Nations League. The reverse fixture last month ended goalless, with Bosnia compact and Poland unable to turn possession into clear chances. That pattern could repeat. Bosnia defend deep and well at home, Poland lack their natural finisher, and Poland's staff have described the pitch in Zenica as poor, which hardly helps a passing game. With second place at stake, neither side is likely to take big risks early.
There are clear risks. Before this window, Bosnia had seen goals at both ends in six of their last eight matches according to previews, and they scored four times in Romania. Poland conceded three in Solna, and Szymański and Zieliński can decide a game even without Lewandowski. An early goal could also open the match up. We still prefer this market to the alternatives. Under 2.5 goals loses on a 2-1, while both teams not to score also wins if one side runs away with it. The handicap on Bosnia is priced roughly where we see it, and the Poland win looks too short without their captain.
Pinnacle's price of 2.27 on both teams not to score implies a probability of about 44 per cent. We put it closer to 48-50 per cent, which means a fair price of around 2.00-2.08. The market's own goal lines suggest around 2.6 goals, and even on that basis a simple model has both teams scoring at only around 52 per cent, well below the roughly 58 per cent the opposite price implies. Lewandowski's absence and Bosnia's modest chance creation both point the same way. That's why we're backing both teams not to score at 2.27 with Pinnacle.
Betting tip: Both teams to score – No @ 2.27 (Pinnacle)
Odds were taken from OddsCapo on Monday and may have changed. Always check the price with the bookmaker before you bet.
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