Niko Kovač's side top the table with 12 points and a 9-2 goal difference after beating Hamburger SV 2-0, Hoffenheim 3-2 away, Paderborn 3-0 and Stuttgart 1-0 away. Counting the cup and the Champions League win over Villarreal, that is six straight victories. Dortmund have conceded in only one of their four league matches, and Gregor Kobel is yet to be beaten in the league at home this season. The squad is not fully fit, though. Emre Can, Giannis Konstantelias, Filippo Mané and Justin Lerma are out, while Nico Schlotterbeck (ankle ligament), Julian Ryerson (rib), Daniel Svensson (cold) and Carney Chukwuemeka (muscle) are doubts. Kovač has said it is possible Schlotterbeck plays.
Daniel Thioune's Werder are eighth on seven points with an 8-8 goal difference: a 4-1 defeat in Freiburg, home wins over RB Leipzig (3-1) and Augsburg (3-2) and a 1-1 draw in Köln. They have scored in every league game, and seven of their eight goals have come after half-time. Füllkrug has three league goals, and Marco Grüll had a goal and two assists against Augsburg. The problem is the treatment room. Jens Stage, Senne Lynen, Salim Musah, Keke Topp, Justin Njinmah, Felix Agu and Moussa Ndiaye are all missing, goalkeeper Karl Hein had a muscle issue earlier in the week, and Bremen lost a friendly 7-0 to Twente during the break with a heavily depleted squad.
History favours the hosts. Dortmund are unbeaten in their last seven meetings with Bremen (five wins, two draws), and Bremen have failed to score in five of those seven games. Last season Dortmund won 3-0 at home and 2-0 in Bremen. The likely pattern is Dortmund controlling the ball against a Bremen side that, without Stage and Lynen, lacks the midfield legs to press high and will rely on Füllkrug as an outlet.
The obvious risk is Füllkrug himself. He knows this stadium, he is in form, and if Schlotterbeck is not fit Dortmund's centre-back pairing will be improvised. Bremen's habit of scoring late is another threat, especially if Dortmund are comfortably ahead and switch off. We considered a straight Dortmund win, but at around 1.33-1.41 the price matches our own estimate and offers no edge. Instead we are taking the view that Bremen's weakened squad will struggle to break through, which makes "both teams to score: no" our pick. It also wins if Bremen hold out for a goalless draw.
The market prices "both teams to score: no" at roughly 2.20-2.30, which implies a probability of around 44 percent. We think Dortmund score about nine times in ten and keep a clean sheet roughly four times in ten, which puts the bet at around 46 percent. At 2.30 with Interwetten, we see a small edge rather than a big one, which suits a modest stake.
Betting tip: Both teams to score: No @ 2.30 (Interwetten)
Odds were taken from OddsCapo on Thursday and may have changed. Always check the price with the bookmaker before you bet.
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