Bodø/Glimt's European record is easy to misread after the heavy loss to Bayern. At home the picture is completely different. Kjetil Knutsen's side have won their last seven home matches and scored at least three goals in every one of them, and they have also won their last five European home games on the synthetic surface. Last season Manchester City, Inter and Sporting all left Aspmyra beaten. Domestic form is solid too: Glimt are second in Eliteserien with 56 goals in 22 league games and have failed to score in only two of them. Andreas Helmersen has 12 goals this season, struck the extra-time winner against Union SG in qualifying and is expected to return after being rested at the weekend, when Glimt beat Kristiansund 3-1. Centre-back Odin Bjørtuft is suspended after his red card against Bayern, and according to reports midfielder Håkon Evjen is also missing, which weakens a defence that already gives up chances against top opposition.
Dortmund arrive unbeaten in seven competitive matches, with six wins and one draw. They have scored in each of their last five games and netted at least twice in seven of their last eight, including 3-2 wins over Villarreal and away at Hoffenheim and a 3-0 win against Paderborn. Saturday's 2-2 draw with Werder Bremen showed the other side of the coin: Dortmund led 2-0 with five minutes left and still dropped points. Serhou Guirassy scored twice against Villarreal and remains the focal point up front. The squad is not complete. Captain Emre Can is out with a knee injury, Giannis Konstantelias is unavailable, and Julian Ryerson is a doubt after picking up a rib injury on international duty with Norway, according to the latest reports.
The only previous competitive meeting came in last season's league phase and finished 2-2 in Dortmund, with Julian Brandt scoring twice for the hosts and Jens Petter Hauge on target for Bodø/Glimt. Glimt press high, push their full-backs forward and create plenty at home, but that approach leaves space behind. Dortmund have the pace and finishing to exploit it, while their own defence has been less secure lately, conceding six goals in their last five matches.
The main risk is a repeat of Munich, where Bodø/Glimt were outclassed and offered little in attack. Dortmund could also sit deeper after taking the lead, and the artificial pitch and cold northern conditions add uncertainty for both teams. We looked at the match result, but with Glimt this strong at home and Dortmund this reliable in front of goal, all three outcomes are realistic, and a handicap would force us to pick a side we are not convinced by. Over 3.5 goals is tempting given the scoring trends, but it needs four goals. Both teams to score only requires each side to find the net once, which is exactly what both have done consistently this autumn.
At OddsCapo, both teams to score – Yes is priced at 1.38 with Coolbet. That corresponds to an implied probability of roughly 72 percent. We rate the chance of goals at both ends at around 75 percent, given Glimt's run of seven straight home games with three or more goals and Dortmund's scoring record over the past two months. The margin is modest, but the price is fair for the scenario that both teams' current form points to. That's why we're backing both teams to score.
Betting tip: Both teams to score – Yes @ 1.38 (Coolbet)
Odds were taken from OddsCapo on Wednesday and may have changed. Always check the price with the bookmaker before you bet.
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