Mark van Bommel could hardly have asked for a better start. In his first game in charge, Belgium won 2-0 against Italy at the Stadio Olimpico, with Matías Godts scoring after 20 minutes from a Kevin De Bruyne assist and Dodi Lukebakio adding the second after 69 minutes. It was not one-way traffic, though. Italy had 21 shots to Belgium's 19. Van Bommel is without Leandro Trossard, Jérémy Doku and Amadou Onana through injury, while Thibaut Courtois is not in the squad by agreement with the coach. Youri Tielemans captains the side, and Romelu Lukaku's minutes are being managed carefully.
Zinédine Zidane's first match as France coach also ended in a narrow win, 1-0 against Türkiye in Kocaeli. Zidane replaced Didier Deschamps and is under contract until 2030. The problem was the price. Kylian Mbappé scored the only goal but injured a tendon in his left knee in the process, and he has left the squad to be treated in Madrid. Ousmane Dembélé leads the attack and will captain France for the first time. Mike Maignan had to make important saves in Türkiye, and France's two biggest games at the World Cup this summer ended 0-1 and 0-2, including the semi-final defeat to Spain.
France have won the last five meetings: 1-0 in the 2018 World Cup semi-final, 3-2 in the 2021 Nations League semi-final, 1-0 at Euro 2024 thanks to a late own goal, and 2-0 and 2-1 in the Nations League in autumn 2024. Three of those five games stayed under 2.5 goals. With Mbappé missing and two coaches who are still settling on their structure, we expect a tighter game than the market suggests.
The main risk is that Belgium's attack is flowing. Godts, Lukebakio and Charles De Ketelaere all contributed in Rome, and the game against Italy produced 40 shots even though it finished 2-0. An early goal could open the match up, and France still have plenty of attacking quality without their captain. That is why we avoid France to win at around 2.00 away from home. The goal market fits the analysis better than the result market.
At OddsCapo, Under 2.5 goals is priced at 2.63 with Betfair, while Over 2.5 is at around 1.55. The price implies roughly a 38 per cent chance of two goals or fewer. Given the head-to-head record, France's narrow wins and Mbappé's absence, we think that is too low, and that there is value in the under.
Betting tip: Under 2.5 goals @ 2.63 (Betfair)
Odds were taken from OddsCapo on Sunday and may have changed. Always check the price with the bookmaker before you bet.
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