Vincent Kompany's side sit third on 11 points and are still unbeaten in the league, but the past week has been bumpy. Bayern fell behind after just eight seconds at Augsburg following a Manuel Neuer error, trailed 1-0 at the break and had to settle for 2-2. In midweek they came back from two goals down to draw 3-3 away to Viking in the Champions League. Michael Olise was sent off there, but the ban applies to European games, so he is expected to play. At home Bayern have been ruthless, with 12 goals in two league games including a 7-0 win over Union Berlin, but only four of those goals came before half-time. Across the league season, just five of their 16 goals have arrived in the first half. According to reports, Jamal Musiala is set to miss out again with a muscle problem, while Neuer is a doubt with a foot injury, which could hand Jonas Urbig a start.
Martín Demichelis, who made more than 250 appearances for Bayern as a player, brings a Leipzig side that sit fifth on nine points. All nine points and 14 of their 15 league goals have come at home, where they crushed Eintracht Frankfurt 6-0 last weekend. It was 4-0 at half-time, with Christopher Nkunku completing his hat-trick before the break. They followed that with a 1-0 home win over PSV in the Champions League. On the road it has been a different story: two defeats in two, including a 2-0 loss at Leverkusen. Christoph Baumgartner, Marc Guiu and Assan Ouédraogo are all sidelined.
The recent head-to-head record leans clearly towards Bayern, who have won the last three competitive meetings: 6-0 in Munich and 5-1 in Leipzig in the league last season, plus 2-0 in the DFB-Pokal in February. According to one statistics provider, Bayern have also won the second half in each of the last seven meetings. Bayern dominate the ball and tend to wear opponents down over 90 minutes, while Leipzig are at their most dangerous early on. Bayern have conceded early in each of their last two games, and they led at half-time in only three of their five league matches.
The obvious risk is that Bayern start the way they did against Union Berlin, when they were 3-0 up at the break. Leipzig have trailed at half-time in both of their away league games, and a single unanswered goal before the interval from either side sinks this bet. Even so, we prefer the half-time market to the full-time result. Bayern to win the match is priced so short that there is little to gain, and a big handicap demands a heavy winning margin against a team that has just scored six. A draw at the break, whether 0-0 or 1-1, lets us use what the data actually shows: a Bayern side that scores most of its goals after half-time, and a busy week of travel and European football behind them.
A half-time draw is priced at 3.90 with Stake at OddsCapo, which corresponds to roughly 26 per cent. Our assessment is about 31 per cent, based on both teams' first-half figures this season and a simple goal model for the opening 45 minutes, so we see value from around 3.25. The edge is modest and this bet will lose more often than it wins, but we think the price underrates how Bayern's games have actually unfolded this autumn.
Betting tip: Half-time result: Draw @ 3.90 (Stake)
Odds were taken from OddsCapo on Saturday and may have changed. Always check the price with the bookmaker before you bet.
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