Atlético's European campaign began with a defeat at Liverpool, followed by a 2-0 home win over Manchester United and a 1-1 draw away to Stuttgart. Domestic form has been far steadier. Atlético come into this game on the back of 1-0 and 2-0 wins over Deportivo La Coruña and Levante, two more clean sheets for a defence that has been hard to break down this autumn. The draw in Stuttgart came at a cost, though. Morten Hjulmand was sent off and is suspended, while Johnny Cardoso and captain Koke are doubts with muscle problems, which leaves the screen in front of the back four thinner than the hosts would like.
Bayern's numbers tell a very different story. They have scored ten goals in three Champions League games – 5-0 against Bodø/Glimt, 3-3 away to Viking and 2-2 against Arsenal – but conceded five in the last two. Recent domestic results follow the same pattern: 3-1 at Freiburg, 6-1 against Magdeburg in the German Cup and 2-2 with Borussia Dortmund at the weekend. The squad is also stretched. Jamal Musiala, Luis Díaz, Serge Gnabry, Ismael Saibari and Bara Sapoko Ndiaye are all out, Michael Olise and Manuel Neuer are doubts, and head coach Vincent Kompany is unavailable through illness, with assistant Aaron Danks taking charge.
The history between the clubs points towards tight games in Madrid. They have met six times since 2016, with Bayern winning three, Atlético two and one ending level. All three meetings at Atlético's ground have been low-scoring: two 1-0 home wins in 2016, then a 1-1 draw in December 2020 in which Bayern's goal came from the penalty spot. Bayern have never won away to Atlético, and Atlético are unbeaten in 16 home European matches against German opposition. The likely match picture is a compact home side defending deep and looking to break, against a Bayern team with plenty of the ball but fewer of its usual creative options.
The risks are clear. Harry Kane has been scoring consistently in the Champions League, and Bayern have found the net in every one of their recent matches, so a Bayern goal is more likely than not. Bayern's defence has also been leaky, which gives Atlético's counter-attacks a genuine chance. If the game opens up early, both sides scoring becomes the natural outcome. We still prefer 'No' in the both teams to score market over a straight result bet. The 1X2 market is finely balanced, while our angle is about the shape of the game: Atlético rarely let home matches turn chaotic, and Bayern arrive without several of the players who usually unlock deep defences. We only need one of the two teams to draw a blank – a 1-0 or 2-0 either way, or a goalless draw, all land the bet.
'No' in both teams to score is priced at 3.10 with Sky Bet at OddsCapo, an implied probability of around 32 per cent. Our own assessment is 37 per cent, based on Atlético's defensive record at home, the low-scoring history in Madrid and the attacking players Bayern are missing. The margin is not huge, and Bayern's scoring run is the main reason the price is this long, but at these odds we see value. That's why we're backing both teams to score: No.
Betting tip: Both teams to score: No @ 3.10 (Sky Bet)
Odds were taken from OddsCapo on Tuesday and may have changed. Always check the price with the bookmaker before you bet.
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Photo: Riyadh Air Metropolitano (then Wanda Metropolitano) by Roberto, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
