Edin Terzić's first season in Bilbao has been uneven. Athletic sit eighth with 12 points from nine matches, one game fewer than most of the division, after going four league games without a win before last weekend's 4-0 home rout of Getafe. On Thursday they eased past Prat 6-1 in the first round of the Copa del Rey with a heavily rotated side, so the derby squad should be relatively fresh. Alex Berenguer leads the scoring with three league goals. The bad news is in midfield: Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta is out with a hamstring injury picked up against Getafe, and Gorka Guruzeta is still recovering from a serious injury. Oihan Sancet is back in training, but according to reports he is more likely to start on the bench.
Real Sociedad are in much better shape. Pellegrino Matarazzo's side are fifth on 19 points and unbeaten in five matches across all competitions, with wins at Málaga and against Levante either side of a 6-0 Europa League victory at Lillestrøm. Luka Sučić has three league goals and captain Mikel Oyarzabal has found his scoring touch again. Crucially, La Real had no midweek fixture: as a Supercopa side they are exempt from the early Copa rounds, so they have had a full week to prepare. No new absences have been reported. The weak spot is at the back, where they have kept only one clean sheet in their last ten games.
The recent history favours the visitors. Athletic have not beaten Real Sociedad since November 2024, and last season La Real won three of the four meetings, including both legs of the Copa del Rey semi-final, one of them at San Mamés. The league picture in Bilbao is more balanced: Real Sociedad have not won any of their last three league visits there. We expect Athletic to press and use Nico and Iñaki Williams in transition, while La Real's man-to-man pressing and attacking numbers in midfield could exploit a home side without its first-choice playmaker.
The risks are clear. San Mamés is a difficult place to play, derbies are often tight and cagey, and a draw is a very realistic outcome. Real Sociedad's defence has leaked goals all autumn, and Athletic's wingers are exactly the kind of players who punish that. We considered the safer double chance, but we prefer the straight away win in the 1X2 market: it gives the best reflection of our view that the gap in form, freshness and recent derby results is not fully priced in.
Real Sociedad to win is priced at 3.70 with Pinnacle at OddsCapo, which implies a probability of 27.0 per cent. The market still treats Athletic as clear favourites, largely on home advantage. We rate La Real's chances at around 30 per cent given their run of form, the extra rest and Athletic's absences in midfield. The margin is small, so this is a modest edge rather than a strong one. That's why we're backing Real Sociedad to win the Basque derby.
Betting tip: Real Sociedad to win @ 3.70 (Pinnacle)
Odds were taken from OddsCapo on Sunday and may have changed. Always check the price with the bookmaker before you bet.
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