Maurizio Sarri's first months in Bergamo have been uneven. Atalanta opened with league wins over Sassuolo (2-1) and Bologna (1-0) and edged past Hapoel Tel Aviv 1-0 on aggregate to reach the Conference League league phase, but then lost three Serie A games in a row: 2-1 away to Roma, 1-2 at home to Cagliari and 0-2 against Juventus in Turin. Five goals in five league matches is a modest return, and the team sit 11th on six points. The attack is also short of options. According to the latest reports, Giacomo Raspadori, who scored the opener against Sassuolo, and Kamaldeen Sulemana will not be risked, while defenders Isak Hien and Odilon Kossounou were still working apart from the group last week. None of Atalanta's seven competitive games this season has produced more than three goals.
Venezia, back in the top flight after promotion, have lost all five league games under Giovanni Stroppa and prop up the table with a 4-13 goal difference. A Coppa Italia exit at Udinese (2-1) makes it six straight defeats in all competitions. The defeats by Lecce, Milan and Lazio all ended 0-2, while the defensive lapses against Frosinone (3-2) and Fiorentina (2-4) inflate the averages. Against Lazio last time out, Venezia actually had 13 shots to Lazio's eight but failed to score. Stroppa says several players, including Schingtienne, Basic, Dagasso and Sohm, are available again, while Busio needs more time and Mazzocchi is behind schedule.
Atalanta are unbeaten in the last five meetings (four wins, one draw). The most recent game in Bergamo, in March 2025, ended 0-0, and the previous meeting in Venice finished 0-2. We expect Sarri's side to have most of the ball against a Venezia team that lines up in a 3-5-2 and drops into a back five without possession. That kind of contest often becomes a long spell of patient build-up against a deep block rather than an open exchange, and Atalanta have not yet shown the cutting edge to turn territorial control into big scorelines. Three weeks without competitive football can also mean a slower rhythm.
The obvious risk is an early Atalanta goal forcing Venezia to open up. Their defence has already conceded three or more twice, and set pieces or individual errors can push a game past the line quickly. That is why we chose Under 3.5 goals rather than Under 2.5. The 2.61 on Under 2.5 is tempting, but a 2-1 or a 3-0 would sink it, while Under 3.5 survives every scoreline up to three goals. Backing Atalanta to win at 1.60 is too short for a side that has lost three in a row, and in our view the -1 handicap at 1.96 offers no clear value either.
Under 3.5 goals is priced at 1.66 with Pinnacle, an implied probability of about 60 per cent. The rest of the goals market tells the same story: Over 2.5 at 1.54 shows that bookmakers expect close to three goals. Yet eight of the two teams' ten Serie A matches this season finished with three goals or fewer, and all seven of Atalanta's competitive fixtures stayed at that level. We put the probability closer to 66 per cent, which gives the price a modest but real edge. That's why we're backing Under 3.5 goals.
Betting tip: Under 3.5 goals @ 1.66 (Pinnacle)
Odds were taken from OddsCapo on Monday and may have changed. Always check the price with the bookmaker before you bet.
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