Unai Emery's side are a puzzle this season. In the Premier League they have only five points from six games and are still waiting for their first home league win, after Saturday's 2-2 draw with Brentford, where Nicolas Jackson and John McGinn scored. Away from Villa Park, they have looked sharper, winning 3-2 at Tottenham and by the same score in Bruges, where McGinn, Emiliano Buendía and Jackson were on target. Europe at home is a different story too. According to Sports Mole, Villa are unbeaten in their last 13 home European matches and have won the last ten. Amadou Onana, Leon Goretzka, Ian Maatsen and Modou Keba Cissé are all reported to be out. In Bruges, Villa picked up three yellow cards.
Fenerbahçe, coached by İsmail Kartal, lost the Istanbul derby 2-1 at Beşiktaş in early September, but have not lost since. The 1-1 draw with Roma was followed by a goalless draw at Gaziantep, an 8-0 rout of Eyüpspor and a 3-0 win at Rizespor on Saturday, with Marco Asensio scoring on his return from injury. Vedat Muriqi and Mason Greenwood lead the attack, while Ederson, Milan Škriniar, Nathan Aké and N'Golo Kanté give the side plenty of experience. Jayden Oosterwolde is out with an Achilles injury. Fenerbahçe have also collected relatively few bookings in the Süper Lig this season, at around 1.4 yellow cards per game according to league statistics.
The clubs have met three times, and Villa have won them all: twice in the 1977-78 UEFA Cup and 1-0 in Istanbul in the Europa League last January. Five yellow cards were shown in that last game, all of them to Villa players and most of them late on as they protected their lead. We expect Villa to control more of the ball at home, while Fenerbahçe sit in a compact block and look to break through Greenwood and Kerem Aktürkoğlu. The referee is Slovakia's Ivan Kružliak. Last season he averaged between 3.3 and 3.8 cards per game in six Champions League matches, depending on whether cards to staff are counted, which is broadly in line with the competition average.
There are clear risks with a cards bet. A tight game or a late Fenerbahçe push for an equaliser can produce a flurry of tactical fouls, and Villa collected five bookings in the last meeting. Kružliak's career numbers in UEFA competitions are also higher than his most recent season, according to referee statistics sites. We still prefer this market. A Villa win is priced short given their home league form, and goals markets already price in an open game. The cards market looks set too high for a game between a home side used to controlling possession in Europe and a visiting team with a modest card count.
At OddsCapo, under 4.5 cards stands at 1.60 with BetMGM, which implies a probability of roughly 62.5 per cent. Based on the referee's recent Champions League average, Fenerbahçe's modest card count and Villa's role as the side with the ball, we expect around 3.5 to 4 cards and put the chance of four or fewer at about 67 per cent. It is a modest edge rather than a big one, but the price offers value. That's why we're backing under 4.5 cards.
Betting tip: Under 4.5 cards @ 1.60 (BetMGM)
Odds were taken from OddsCapo on Wednesday and may have changed. Always check the price with the bookmaker before you bet.
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