Ruben Amorim's Milan have 12 points from six league games, with three wins and three draws, and sit just behind the leading pack. The defence has been the foundation, with only five goals conceded so far, and Mike Maignan once again had to bail his side out in last weekend's 1-1 draw at Sassuolo, where Adrien Rabiot's opener was cancelled out from a corner within minutes. That was Milan's third draw in their last four league matches, after level scores against Lazio and Juventus. On Thursday Amorim rotated in the Europa League and was rewarded with a 4-0 win away to Salzburg, where 19-year-old Alphadjo Cissé scored a hat-trick according to reports. Matteo Gabbia and Alexis Saelemaekers remain sidelined, while Gonçalo Ramos is expected to lead the line with Christian Pulisic behind him.
Atalanta, now coached by Maurizio Sarri, have had a more uneven start. A bright opening was followed by three straight league defeats, including against Cagliari and Juventus, before they steadied the ship with a 3-1 home win over Venezia last weekend, Nikola Krstović scoring twice. They followed that with a 3-1 win against Pafos in the Conference League on Thursday, so they arrive with some momentum, but also with just nine points from six games and a place in mid-table. The squad is stretched. Eljif Elmas is suspended after his red card against Venezia, Giorgio Scalvini and Isak Hien are injured, and Giacomo Raspadori is a doubt. That leaves Sarri with fewer options, particularly in defence.
History has been firmly on Atalanta's side in recent seasons. They have gone seven straight meetings without defeat against Milan, and last season's two league games ended 1-1 in Bergamo in October and 3-2 to Atalanta at San Siro in May. On paper, Sunday's game pits Milan's solid, patient structure against an Atalanta side that has found its scoring touch again over the past week. With both clubs having played in Europe on Thursday, and Milan heading to Bournemouth in the Europa League next week, a tight and even contest looks more likely than an open exchange of chances.
The obvious risk is that Milan finally turn their quality into a win. They are at home, they rarely concede, and the market rightly makes them favourites. Atalanta's absences could also tell late in the game, and in a match this close a single set piece can decide it. We considered a straight Milan win, but backing the favourite against an opponent that has gone seven games unbeaten in the fixture offers too little margin. Both teams to score was the other alternative, yet Milan's defensive record this season makes it less convincing than it first appears. The draw, by contrast, is supported by Milan's recent pattern, the head-to-head record and the fact that both squads are coming off European ties three days earlier.
OddsCapo has the draw at 4.10 with ATG, which corresponds to an implied probability of 24.4 per cent. We put the chance of a draw at around 28 per cent, given that Milan have drawn three of their last four league games and that Atalanta have not lost to them in seven attempts. The margin is not large, and a draw is by nature a volatile outcome, but we think the price slightly underestimates how evenly matched these two sides have been in recent years. That's why we're backing the draw at San Siro.
Betting tip: Draw @ 4.10 (ATG)
Odds were taken from OddsCapo on Sunday and may have changed. Always check the price with the bookmaker before you bet.
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